There are many Covid 19 data points. I have been trying to find a reliable data point that could easily indicate whether a country has passed a critical milestone (and from then on things are less daunting.)

The total confirmed is not a good one. It can be skewed by insufficient tests devices, lack of medical staff, total population, delay of the tests, only testing the severe cases, etc. and we don’t know by how much.

I am thinking the recovered-death ratio may be a good one. For those countries and regions now considered relatively in a better shape:

• China: 75770/3304 = 23
• South Korea: 5228/158 = 33
• Singapore: 212/3 = 71
• Hongkong: 118/4 = 30

Data as of 3/29. https://google.org/crisisresponse/covid19-map

United States now is: 4767/2510 = 2.

The threshold seems to be around 20.

This ratio is also skewed by the delay, but to get to the territory of around 20, a country should have gone to a point that not just testing severe cases but a larger coverage and also level of delay should be quite negligible.

update (6/29/2020): after posted this, I realized the recovered counter is a joke in the US reported figures from statistical usefulness perspective. Patients get discharged back home without reliable tracking mechanism even tested positive.

Wondering if US is heading the right path by not collecting key data. Technology has been a double-edge sword. So far, for many thousands years, it hasn’t stopped or slowed down for reasons like it might create disaster if it is used inappropriately.