2023结束前

经济：继续下行，股市房市最低点下跌20%以上。（如何证伪：美国房屋中位价2022年11月是$393,935，.DJI在1月3日是$33,630。所以房价最低在$315,148以下，.DJI最低是$26,904以下。）

人工智能：人类开始疯狂请教于人工智能。如同二十年前通过图书馆搜索信息过度到通过谷歌搜索知识，这次是过渡到通过人工智能搜索智慧。（如何证伪：至少三个重要领域里，由于人工智能教会了人类以前一直没有想到的新思路，从而获得突破性发展）（题外话：不要再天真的认为从事什么创造性的工作就不会被人工智能替代，不远处的将来，人类一思考人工智能就发笑。2022年已经是那个时代的元年。在数字世界里人类将遭遇一场通用人工智能的洗礼，但不用担心，在物质世界里，人类还有很远很长的路可以走。）

自动驾驶：特斯拉的FSD可以做到城市路段任意三英里两点间80%情况下无需干预进行安全且不尴尬的行驶。（如何证伪？在家附近随机挑选符合要求的五段路进行测试，其中四个路段必须无干预点到点。）（细节：归功于类似InstructGPT的RLHF的使用和Language of Lanes的配合，基本上就是用自然语言处理的当前优势加上更多的无监管学习来解决自动驾驶。）

航天：星舰完成轨道测试并成功回收，正式开始接管猎鹰9成为主要升空载荷火箭。（如何证伪？星舰已经完全替代猎鹰用于发射星链，并接到2024年以后的星舰商业订单。）

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以下是ChatGPT的英语翻译。我只是手工修改了几个词，主要也是我中文原文表达得不清楚。感受一下这种对语意了解的深度和对语言操控的能力。

By the end of 2023

Economy: The economy is continuing to decline, with the stock market and housing market experiencing a drop of more than 20% at their lowest points. (To verify: The median price of a home in the US in November 2022 was $393,935, and the .DJI was at $33,630 on January 3rd. Therefore, the lowest point for housing prices would be below $315,148, and the lowest point for the .DJI would be below $26,904.)

Artificial intelligence: Humans are starting to obsessively seek out artificial intelligence for guidance. Just as twenty years ago people transitioned from searching for information in libraries to searching for knowledge on Google, this time we are transitioning to searching for wisdom through artificial intelligence. (To verify: In at least three important fields, breakthrough developments have been achieved as a result of artificial intelligence teaching humans new ways of thinking that they had not previously considered.) (Aside: Don’t naïvely think that any creative work will be immune to replacement by artificial intelligence. In the not-so-distant future, humans will be laughed at by AI whenever humans start to be creative. 2022 was the beginning of that era. In the digital world, humans will undergo an AGI baptism. But don’t worry, in the physical world, humans have a long way to go before being outdone by AI.)

Autonomous driving: Tesla’s FSD can safely and smoothly travel between any two points within three miles on city roads without human intervention in 80% of cases. (To verify: Test five randomly selected routes in my city that meet the requirements, with four of the routes requiring point-to-point travel without intervention.) (Details: This is essentially achieved through the use of natural language processing and more unsupervised learning, thanks to the use of something RLHF-related similar to InstructGPT and the combination of Language of Lanes for autonomous driving.)

Space: The Starship has completed its orbit test and has successfully been recovered, officially taking over as the primary launch vehicle for Falcon 9. (To verify: The Starship has completely replaced the Falcon 9 for launching Starlink and has received commercial orders for use on future launches on and after 2024.)