The Pursuit of Happiness: Six Experts Tell What They’ve Done to Achieve It (zz)

 

From Amy’s Space, Thanks.

 

Yes, money can buy happiness. But you have to spend it with care.

Take your dad to the Super Bowl. Buy a home near the office. Get married. Go out to dinner with the family. Take a memorable vacation, and be sure to buy souvenirs.

Where does this advice come from? I talked to half-a-dozen academics who specialize in "happiness research" — and asked what changes they had made in their own lives.

Relishing the day. Possibly the biggest obstacle to greater happiness is so-called hedonic adaptation. Sure, you are thrilled when you first get promoted or get a pay raise. But soon enough, the thrill fades and you are lusting after something else.

"When something good happens, you want to find a way to hold on to it for longer," says David Schkade, a management professor at the University of California at San Diego. For instance, you might go out to dinner to celebrate even modest career accomplishments. Similarly, you should purchase souvenirs or take photos when you’re on vacation, so you remember the trip for longer.

Prof. Schkade tries to follow his own advice. As an undergraduate, he attended the University of Texas at Austin. When the Longhorns won the national championship in January at the Rose Bowl, he bought T-shirts that marked the occasion, so he wouldn’t quickly forget the team’s victory.

"You have to combat adaptation," Prof. Schkade says. "You want to celebrate the small things, not just the big ones. If you save all your celebrations for getting married or becoming vice president, you won’t celebrate very much."

Dodging traffic. Studies have found that commuting ranks as one of life’s least enjoyable activities. The reason: While folks often adapt to changes in their lives, both good and bad, it’s tough to adapt to commuting, because you can never be sure how much traffic you’ll hit.

"Lack of control is what tends to induce stress in human beings," notes Andrew Oswald, an economics professor at England’s Warwick University. "It made me re-evaluate whether I should be a long-distance commuter." A few years ago, Prof. Oswald moved closer to his office, slashing his commuting time from 60 to 20 minutes.

Seeing friends. If commuting makes people so unhappy, why do they take jobs or buy homes that will mean a long commute? Folks rely on their initial reaction — and, at first, the long commute may not seem so bad. "People don’t think about how things will play out over time," says Cornell University economics professor Robert Frank.

Suppose you have the chance to take a higher-paying job that will leave you with less time for socializing. At first blush, that might strike you as a reasonable trade-off. But in all likelihood, you will quickly take the larger salary for granted.

Meanwhile, you’ll miss out on seeing friends and family, which surveys suggest are among our happiest times. "Earlier on, I tended to sacrifice my family time to try and push research ahead," recalls Richard Easterlin, an economics professor at the University of Southern California. "I do that much less now. Going out to dinner with family for me is always an enjoyable experience."

Buying memories. Some folks are inherently less happy and some more so, and this basic temperament seems to be remarkably enduring.

Nonetheless, you may be able to boost your level of happiness by thinking carefully about how you spend your time, says Princeton University economics professor Alan Krueger. On that score, try "buying memorable experiences," he suggests.

As an example, Prof. Krueger cites taking his father to the 2001 Super Bowl, which pitted the New York Giants against the Baltimore Ravens. "I got a lot of mileage out of that," he says. "I had the anticipation of the game, as well as the game itself. I framed my ticket, which reminds me of the trip." Still, he adds, "it would have been better had the Giants won."

Limiting options. Having lots of choice might seem like a good thing. But in fact, it can lead to unhappiness.

Consider a study conducted by professors Jane Ebert and Daniel Gilbert. Participants were allowed to choose an art poster to take home. Some were told that, if they didn’t like the poster, they could exchange it for another. Others were told their decision was final.

"Who was happiest with their choice?" asks Prof. Gilbert of Harvard University. "Those for whom the choice was irrevocable. When options are open, the mind generates debate. When options are closed, the mind generates satisfaction."

This insight spurred Prof. Gilbert to limit his own choices. "It made me realize that I ought to propose to my girlfriend," he says. "Sure enough, now that she’s my wife, I’m happier."

节日都疯了

机票狂飙,这个圣诞不去多伦多啦。郁闷。

装了Vista,比去年第一次装Beta的时候好多了,驱动基本都能找到,就是打印机还是不行。还有不少软件系统冲突,不过半年之后,流行到一定程度,一定会好很多。再次佩服MS,不是佩服它能弄出个Vista,而是让几千人在一个产品上工作5年,按部就班。

好玩的咚咚

http://www.20q.net/

瓶子blog看到的。你想一样东西,它问你二十到三十个问题,就能猜出你想的是什么。我想的,它每次都猜中,实在牛啊~

回国短短时间,回来停车场又多了两保时捷,分特,我又开始仇富啦。哦,对了,差点忘了说,前天一出门就碰见一台SLR,唉,不仇富不行啊。

寻找在股市中做伪庄家的可能性

从小就有人告诉我,在赌场中,只有做庄家,才能立于不败。小赌怡情养性,大赌创业兴家,只发生在几个像赌王何鸿燊的人身上。曾经在赌桌上,旁边有人问我,现在几点钟,我答曰,7点,那人再问,是早上7点,还是晚上7点,唉,看着他的熊猫眼,早上晚上又有什么意义,快点把身上的钱输光了出去看看,不就一清二楚啦。我不相信何鸿燊的赌王地位是靠这样在赌桌上兢兢业业赚回来的,因为他清楚知道,在赌场里,只有庄家才能不败。

股市是最近才接触,赌场以前倒是经常去。我不算是个赌徒。我觉得,任何去玩21点回来马上去编模拟器找最佳博奕策略的,都不能算地道的赌徒,充其量是个贪财的书生。

Casino和Wall Street有很多相似点,财富高度聚敛,人生百态浓缩,有人一夜赚了一辈子的钱,有人一夜输了一辈子赚的钱。为了分一杯羹,任何人类所熟知与不熟知的各类方法算法都经过各种演算,目的就是在看似混沌的数据里面找寻看似存在的某种“玩法”,能比其它人更能获利。我最近突然想到利用黄金分割的比例来寻找最佳的入市和出售点,我正沾沾自喜于自己是如此一个彻头彻尾的天才,竟能想到如此“艺术”的手段去投资,google一下,kao,原来早就有整整一个地球的人想到了,而且这功能还做到了股票软件里面去了。

我既不是搞金融的,也没开过赌场,为了不再卖弄自己的无知,我google了一下我将要发表的“伪庄家”理论,好像还算新鲜,特此大胆发表一下。

股市中早有庄家一说,大庄有像索罗斯和巴菲特之流,中庄有投资大牛/机构,小庄有形形色色各种级别的day trader。平均下来,这些大中小庄,都是股市的赢家。他们的共同点都是拥有可以操控部分市场的资金,再利用散户的“情绪”和媒体,达到预期效果。

股市只有赢家和输家,所以如果你不是庄家,你就几乎注定是输家。因此前天C同学说,从长远的角度看,一般散户,最后是以输钱收场的。我是赞成的。同时,我作为一个贪财的书生,也总希望有方法能反对。

于是,我又想到了赌场和股市的相似性,也就是本文的标题:寻找在股市中做伪庄家的可能性。

很多人都能一眼看出赌场和股市的相似性,不需要我在这里多说。大家在看到相似性的同时,却都把注意力放在了玩家的角色方面。买10股HMIN,类似于掏10块钱压大,很像文章开始提到的那位熊猫眼,这种角色来赚钱,庄家从来不屑。

同一宗买卖,我们不如尝试着调换角色来思考一下:
并不是我们去买了10股MHIN从而开始了一场赌局,而是MHIN跑过来压了10股在我们开盘的桌子上(显然这里是拟人的手法),HMIN如果跌的话,幸运的HMIN就从我们这些做庄的手中赢钱;HMIN如果涨,可怜的HMIN就输钱给我们这个“赌场”。

这种思维角度有什么好处?好处是你可以把自己看作是一个开赌场的,严格来说,一个伪庄家,然后套用庄家的原则,经营手段,喜恶,去操作手中的股票。

下面罗列一些赌场的特点,来类比得出如果我们以庄家的身份去陪“天真”的HMIN玩几局,应该是什么样子的。

1。赌场有“用不完”的钱
赌场几乎都是24小时营业的,据我所知,拉斯维加斯的所有赌场都是24小时营业的。从来没有听说某个赌场某天宣布:各位赌客,实在抱歉,今天本赌场钱已经输光给大家,等明天本赌场筹到更多钱,大家再来玩个痛快。
输光的庄家不是明智的庄家,或者根本称不上是庄家,变成玩家了。只有玩家才会输光了,等下个月发工资了,再来报仇。庄家从来不离开赌桌,离开赌桌的永远只会是玩家。
那类比之下,该如何跟我们的HMIN玩呢?它赢(HMIN跌),我们要一直陪它玩,保证不离桌;它输(HMIN涨),输到某个程度,可以打发它回家,明天再来,或者管它以后还来不来。这种操作方法,没有任何止损可言,跌多少都不放。这种看似可怕的赌博,是有两个前提的:a)不能全仓;b)严格避免劣质股。赌场也是有这两个前提的(参考接下来的2和3)

2。赌场设每注上限
你到赌场会发现,每张桌子都有上限。原因是赌场不是赌徒,只希望立于不败,并不渴求大获全胜。如果没有上限,盖茨某天看那个赌场不顺眼,用几分之一身家跟赌场玩一盘大,开小的话盖茨最多身家缩水(每次MSFT跌都会缩一缩,没什么大不了),万一开大,那赌场就完了。记住,钱能输光的不是庄家,是玩家。
全仓的话,其实就是用你整个“赌场”的钱去跟一只股票赌。我知道很多朋友喜欢或者不反对全仓,没有是非,但我觉得,主要看你的目标,如果想大获全胜,无可厚非,想立于不败,全仓并不是通途。

3。赌场设立VIP房和黑名单
赌场最害怕跟什么玩家赌?再次重申,我没有开过赌场,没有发言权,但从他们设立VIP房和黑名单,可以略知一二。
VIP房里面的人,是携巨款的人,可以让赌场用不完的钱有些显得不是那么真的用不完。于是,VIP房里面可以让VIP们自己人跟自己人赌,例如show hand,Texas Hold’m等,赌场站在一旁,免于跟他们硬拚。
黑名单,这只是听说,没有确见如此一份名单。以前在研究21点的时候,知道如果背熟策略表,加上HI-LO system count牌,如果再加上true count,可以在概率上赢赌场零点几个百分点。这是赌场为数不多的可以让玩家在概率上占优的游戏。于是在21点这个游戏上,诞生了不少赌场很讨厌的“高手”,结果这些人都进了赌场的黑/不受欢迎名单,被保安客气的拦在门外。
劣质股就是这些我们应该请进VIP房或者列入黑名单的玩家。尽所有渠道去了解一只股,不单看数据,还要看它的客户,它所在的行业,它的人员流动,它的对手,它的产品。不是寻找优质股,而是确定它不是劣质股。因为根据第一点,我们做伪庄家的,是不止损的。

4。赌场不怕输,只怕你赢了不再来
刚开始在赌场玩的一段时间,我赢了不少(可能是应了新手运气都特别好的金科玉律),接着就不断收到赌场的糖衣炮弹,免费早餐,免费晚餐,生日卡,优惠赌场酒店住宿等,我是一个贪小便宜的人,于是屁颠屁颠的占了所有的小便宜。后果大家都应该猜个七七八八了。可能猜不到的是,当我把原来赢的都输回去再搭上自己的一点本金之后,就再也没有收到这类小便宜了。这就是赌场,它不怕输,只怕你赢了不再来。至于你输了,它知道等你手中有钱了,“报仇”之念就会萌发,并不需要什么小便宜来引诱你来。
在这一点上,我们去套用伪庄家理论,并不需要使用龌龊的小便宜伎俩,因为就算HMIN暂时赢了我们(股票暂时跌),在我们打发它走之前(放掉股票),它是跑不掉的,它得一直陪伪庄家赌,直到它输到某个程度,或者直到永远。关键是作为一个伪庄家,不能有情绪,不能有心理,不能放走一只赢了你钱的股票。(记住,你不是全仓,陪任何一只股票玩到地老天荒不影响你的生活质素,你不能等着靠赢那只股票来开饭)

5。赌场不赶尽杀绝
上面提到的我没有再收到小便宜,其实是赌场施的恩惠。赌场不会逼每个玩家必须输光身上所有钱。
我每每看到我在一个月前卖出的HMIN还在不断涨的时候,我就提醒自己,作为一个伪庄家,不需要赶尽杀绝,给玩家们留一点加汽油的钱回家。敢问有多少人能把握好一只股票在中短线的最高点,更不用说长线的最高点,又试问有多少人为了追求真正的最高点,而错过了,还不如当初的次高点。

6。赌场会花钱去维持赌局的继续
赌场会有免费的穿梭巴士,有免费的茶水饮料,有壮丽的喷水池,辉煌的装饰。诚然,这些投资几乎来自玩家输的钱,是玩家建设的赌场。
作为伪庄家,交易费之类的支出,如果控制在一定比例下,不妨以平常心对待。小钱不出,大钱不入。

有一千万人投资股票,就有一千万种操作策略。没有好坏,没有对错,因为人类早就习惯了自以为是。有一次在等巴士去赌场的时候,跟旁边一老伯伯聊天,他说他对玩百家乐颇有心得,他已经总结出一套有95%几率赢赌场的秘密玩法,他是绝对不会把秘密告诉我的,知道这秘密的,全世界只有他和他儿子两个人。我心想,千万别告诉我,我怕知道了之后赌场找杀手灭了我。

但有几点我自以为是的,也不断警告自己的:
1。分散投资。在我没有经营任何生意之前,股票是我最高风险的那部分投资,应严格控制在总资产的50%以下。财不入急门。分散投资的好处在于:市道好,大家赚钱,我也赚钱;市道差,大家赔钱,我照样赚钱。
2。上班时候不碰股票。没有哪个老板喜欢员工上班盯着各种走势曲线图的,we are not paid for doing that。除非你是职业day trader。
3。Don’t make money, create wealth. 只为梦想而疯狂。

工作小结(4个月)

回国腐败了十天,工作上没有太多可以小结的。VP of Tech来了,印度人,对offshore到印度情有独钟,我看我外派到中国的希望也就比较渺茫了。但没关系,get ready, be patient。

等有时间,我倒是想小结一下这次回国看到想到的。